{"id":579,"date":"2019-11-06T21:09:34","date_gmt":"2019-11-06T20:09:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wpethzprd.ethz.ch\/energy\/?p=579"},"modified":"2025-03-27T16:04:27","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:04:27","slug":"back-up-generation-developing-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.ethz.ch\/energy\/back-up-generation-developing-world\/","title":{"rendered":"Understanding the Scale of Back-up Generation in the Developing World"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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By Yael Borofsky<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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Thanks to unreliable electricity grids, fossil-fuel powered generators in low- and middle-income countries constitute as much generation capacity as up to 1,000 coal-fired plants, finds a new report from the IFC and the Schatz Energy Research Center. That sounds bad for the climate and public health, but generators also help people stay out of poverty…<\/b><\/b><\/h3>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Driving down a mountain<\/span> in the Swiss Alps after an exhausting late Fall hike, we were hungrily anticipating a good meal, but when we got to the first town and looked aro<\/span>und, all the lights were, surprisingly, out. Every restaurant was either completely dark or the tables sported a few flickering candles and a collection of confused looking guests visible through the windows.<\/span><\/p>

None of these businesses appeared to have a back-up power supply, and why would they? This outage was an anomaly \u2014 the grid in Switzerland is more than 99% reliable<\/a>.\u00a0But what about countries where power outages are the norm?<\/p>

A new report<\/a> by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) developed in partnership with the Schatz Energy Research Center<\/a> has found that there are about 350 – 500 GW of back-up generation capacity in low- and middle-income countries \u2014 that\u2019s more than 17 times the installed generating capacity<\/a> of Switzerland, or, as the authors point out, about 700-1000 coal-fired power plants.<\/p>

The report, \u201cThe Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid: The Impacts of Fossil Fuel Back-up Generators in Developing Countries<\/a>,\u201d estimates that around two billion people live with more than 100 hours worth of power outages per year (and one billion with more than 1,000 hours per year). In response, many turn to diesel or gasoline generators to keep the lights on and businesses running. The authors set out to model the sheer scale and cost of the back-up generation used to meet all that pent-up electricity demand and the problems that go along with reliance on this technology.<\/p>

\"\"<\/p>

Figure 1: Source: International Finance Corporation, 2019. The Dirty Footprint of the\u00a0<\/span>Broken Grid: The Impacts of Fossil Fuel Back-up Generators in Developing Countries.<\/em><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

The report is worth discussing here for a couple of reasons.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

First, the report is based on findings from a rather impressive modelling exercise, given the substantial limits to data availability. The authors do a nice job explaining how the data limitations influence the model results. Specifically, they make clear that while the numbers may be underestimates, these results can still inform technology and policy solutions.<\/span><\/p>

Second, the vast majority of work focused on energy access in developing countries zeroes in on households that are not connected to the grid. This report, however, suggests that unreliable grid connectivity is about as big a problem in terms of people affected. These findings raise important new questions about the relationship between energy access and environmental challenges, such as climate change and air pollution mitigation.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

So let\u2019s dig a bit deeper into the report.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

The Run-down<\/b><\/h3>

Using global import and export trade data from 167 low- and middle-income countries (excluding China due to data limitations), along with data on power outages, and generator manufacturer data (primarily from Western manufacturers), the report estimates the characteristics of the back-up generation market. Here are the main findings:<\/span><\/p>